Chile’s economic prospects are sending a $229 billion signal that Bitcoin evangelists seem determined to ignore. The central bank just upgraded its 2025 GDP growth forecast to between 2.25% and 2.75%, while domestic demand is set to surge by 4.3%. That’s serious money in a $229 billion economy. But Bitcoiners are still waiting for their “Bukele moment.” Dream on.
The Chilean economy is actually showing robust signs of recovery. Real GDP grew 1.6% in the third quarter, with domestic demand expanding an impressive 5.8% year-on-year. Private consumption is thriving thanks to strong real wage growth. Meanwhile, investment is getting a boost from machinery and equipment purchases. Investment expectations are particularly strong with gross fixed capital formation projected to increase from 2.2% to 6.8% in 2025. None of this requires magical internet money to fix.
Chile’s outlook isn’t just a flash in the pan. The OECD projects steady growth of 2.2% in both 2026 and 2027, while Fitch expects 2.5% next year. Santander Chile, with boots on the ground, forecasts 2.4% growth in 2025. Copper prices remain stable around $4.30 per pound. The fundamentals are solid.
Chile’s economic trajectory shows staying power, with consistent growth projections and stable copper prices underpinning its fundamental strength.
Inflation? Under control. It fell to 3.4% in October, within the target range, and is expected to hit the 3% target by Q3 2026. The policy rate is headed toward a neutral 4.25%. No hyperinflation crisis to exploit here.
Chile is even implementing meaningful structural reforms. The Framework Law on Sectoral Permits is cutting red tape. Digital government initiatives are making public services faster. Foreign direct investment relative to GDP has reached almost 85%. These aren’t band-aids – they’re actual solutions.
Sure, risks exist. Growth might slow to 1.8% in 2026. Temporary boosts from Argentine tourism will fade. Chile’s export dependence on China isn’t ideal.
But unlike El Salvador’s Bitcoin gambit, Chile is pursuing fiscal consolidation through moderate spending growth and targeted revenue measures.
Bitcoin enthusiasts keep looking for the next desperate economy to experiment with. Chile’s sending a clear message: We’re good, thanks.
