Citi just dialed back its crypto ambitions. The bank slashed its 12-month Bitcoin target from $143,000 down to $112,000 — a $31,000 cut. Ethereum got trimmed too, from $4,304 to $3,175. Not exactly a vote of confidence.
Analyst Alex Saunders authored the revision note, pointing to slower U.S. crypto legislation, weaker on-chain activity, and cautious ETF inflow expectations. The December forecasts had assumed faster regulatory easing. That didn’t happen. Washington, being Washington, stalled things out.
Slower legislation, weak on-chain data, and cautious ETF expectations — Washington stalled, and the forecasts paid the price.
The Clarity Act — the big digital asset legislation everyone was waiting on — now sits at just a 60% chance of passing this year according to Polymarket. Democratic midterm gains could shrink those odds further.
Saunders flagged a narrowing window for legislation to actually get done in 2025. Classic.
ETF demand is still in the picture, but it’s not as rosy as before. Citi now projects Bitcoin ETFs pulling in $10 billion over the next 12 months, with Ethereum ETFs bringing in $2.5 billion. Lower than prior estimates. Still a positive, but not the flood everyone was hoping for. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $199 million in net inflows on March 16, with cumulative net inflows reaching $56.3 billion.
Here’s the weird part though. Bitcoin is sitting around $73,000 to $74,000 right now, even after the target cuts. Ethereum is near $2,329. Prices have actually risen recently, despite the downgrade. Retail sentiment for both Bitcoin and Ethereum continues to trend bullish despite the revised outlooks.
The revised Bitcoin target still implies over 51.8% upside from current levels. So Citi’s cutting expectations and simultaneously saying there’s massive room to run. Make that make sense.
The bull case has Bitcoin hitting $165,000 and Ethereum reaching $4,488. The bear case? Bitcoin at $58,000, Ethereum crashing to $1,198. That recessionary scenario ties directly to weaker equity markets.
For reference, $70,000 is considered Bitcoin’s key support level right now. Investors navigating this volatility should weigh security and convenience when deciding how to store their holdings across hot and cold wallets.
Saunders did note the institutional case for Bitcoin remains intact. On-chain activity is weak, but stablecoin trends for Ethereum are worth watching. Bitcoin hit a record above $126,000 in October, and Ethereum peaked over $4,900 in August.
Both are well off those highs. The targets got cut. The hope didn’t.
