After six straight red monthly candles, Ethereum looks like it’s been through a war. The last time ETH printed this kind of streak was 2018. That seventh month marked the cycle low. History doesn’t always repeat, but it rhymes pretty loudly right now.
Tom Lee’s call isn’t subtle. He’s fundamentally saying the bottom is in, pointing to a pattern that’s showing up across multiple timeframes. A rounded bottom formation on the weekly chart. An inverse head-and-shoulders on the monthly. Even a double bottom developing, which traders consider one of the more reliable reversal signals out there. That’s a lot of patterns pointing the same direction.
Tom Lee sees a bottom. Multiple timeframes, multiple patterns — all pointing the same direction.
Bears aren’t convinced, obviously. They’ve got their own roadmap — downside targets sitting at $1,760, $1,400, and even $1,000. A bearish pin bar already formed below $2,100, and critical support at $1,837–$1,840 is doing a lot of heavy lifting right now. Break below that, and the bearish case reasserts itself fast.
Meanwhile, the institutional crowd can’t agree on anything. Standard Chartered slashed its 2026 year-end target from $7,500 down to $4,000. LongForecast says $3,189. WalletInvestor says $3,213. Changelly thinks it could hit $5,201. Some analysts are still throwing out $7,000–$9,000 targets. The range is so wide it’s almost laughable.
The 3.5-year cycle theory adds another layer. Unlike Bitcoin’s halving cycle, Ethereum supposedly runs on its own rhythm. According to this framework, the cyclical bottom formed in late 2025, and Q1 2026 kicks off a new expansionary phase. Not a moonshot. More of a slow grind back up.
On-chain data shows a strong support zone near $2,720, where major accumulation whales are sitting. That’s not nothing. Whales don’t just throw money around carelessly. Adding further conviction to the bull case, institutional buyers have accumulated 3.8% of ETH’s total supply since June 2025, signaling that deep-pocketed players are quietly positioning for a recovery. Ethereum’s transition to Proof of Stake has also strengthened the long-term investment thesis by improving the network’s energy efficiency and scalability, giving institutional players additional fundamental reasons to accumulate.
A confirmed breakout above $3,300 would signal a push toward all-time highs, while a fake breakdown below $2,700 could actually flip bearish momentum. Either way, ETH is at an inflection point. Whether the bottom is actually in — that’s the million-dollar question. Literally. Adding to the long-term bull narrative, BlackRock has highlighted Ethereum’s pivotal role in tokenization, suggesting its utility extends well beyond speculative price action.
