As Bitcoin reached an unprecedented high of nearly $126,198 in early October 2025, a familiar pattern emerged in the crypto market. Major crypto-related IPOs clustered around this peak, with Bullish debuting on August 13 and Figure Technology Solutions pricing at $25 on September 10.
And just like clockwork, Grayscale filed for its public IPO on November 13, about a month after Bitcoin hit its summit. Gee, what a coincidence.
These IPO clusters aren’t random. They’re like flashing red lights signaling a market top. History repeats itself—remember Coinbase’s IPO in 2021? Same story. Different year.
When crypto companies rush to go public, check your portfolio. The market peak bell is ringing loud and clear.
Bullish’s IPO attracted heavy first-day trading with valuation hitting the top of its range. Portfolio managers now have a fixed anchor for late-cycle monitoring, whether they want it or not.
The party’s over, folks. Bitcoin has crashed below $90,000, wiping out 2025 gains in a month-long slide. On November 18, it fell another 2.8%, continuing its decline from October’s peak.
The largest token hasn’t traded this low since Trump’s initial tariff plan was announced, before eventually bottoming at $74,400 in April 2025. Despite its market dominance of approximately 62.7%, Bitcoin is showing signs of weakness unlike its historical stability. This drop represents a classic transition from the bubble phase to the crash phase, with traders witnessing the beginning of the expected 80% drawdown that historically follows market peaks. The current market resembles a typical Bitcoin correction pattern rather than a structural failure of the asset class.
Onchain indicators are flashing warnings that match previous major downturns. Realized losses have surged as short-term holders panic-sell below the 200-day moving average.
The displacement in realized losses looks eerily similar to the November 2022 FTX collapse. Not great.
The Greed & Fear Index has plummeted to extreme pessimism. Sentiment is pinned in “extreme fear” territory. Historically, this suggests a tactical low might be near, but don’t get too excited.
Current behavior matches patterns from November 2018, March 2020, and June 2022: sharp spot selling, collapsing funding rates, and momentum buyers heading for the exits.
Bitcoin sits beyond 3.5 standard deviations from its 200-day moving average. Technical analysis shows the daily downtrend tightening its grip on price.
The bull market‘s obituary isn’t written yet. But it’s being drafted.
